Home » Diseases » Volume indicator mt4. Volume indicator on Forex - how to increase the accuracy of forecasting further price movements? What is volume in Forex and why are traders worried?

Volume indicator mt4. Volume indicator on Forex - how to increase the accuracy of forecasting further price movements? What is volume in Forex and why are traders worried?

Volume is a quantitative characteristic that reflects the occupancy of space by a certain substance over a fixed time period.

If we apply this definition to financial markets, then volume will be the number of assets that traders bought/sold during the trading session.

These are just some of the situations that can be read, having before your eyes reliable information about the current volume level.

Forex is a decentralized trading platform, so there is no single reliable source to determine current volume levels. The terminal displays only those values that are available to the selected brokerage firm. If you trust them, then next we will look at tools designed to work with volumes (all indicators can be downloaded for free).

Classification of tools

To add a vertical volume indicator, you must: go to the terminal, press the right button. mouse and select the “Volumes” section.

Using the tool is quite simple: the higher the bars, the greater the volume (and vice versa).

Vertical (tick) volumes can also be monitored using the Volume indicator, available in the “List of Indicators” section.

But there is no special tool in MetaTrader that allows you to track horizontal volumes. This is quite strange, because it is on levels that most modern strategies are built. Let's figure out where to download and how to use horizontal volume cluster indicators for MT4.

VolumesHist

Before you download the VolumesHist indicator (horizontal volumes), take a look at the mechanism of its application. The market is constantly changing its state: the phase of “Accumulation” (concentration of orders) is followed by “Distribution” (directed movement towards satisfying demand).

Horizontal volumes help a trader identify “Value Zones” (levels) within which the market will move.

Let's add the VolumesHist indicator.

Let's make a visual comparison of horizontal and vertical volumes.

In the current situation we receive the following information:

vertical volumes: decreasing bar → proximity of the resistance level → priority to sell transactions;
horizontal volumes: long bands → proximity of support → priority to buy entries.

We are waiting and watching the result.

The considered example confirmed that horizontal volumes are a more accurate and convenient tool for technical analysis.

Warning: the readings of any volume indicator must be confirmed with auxiliary instruments.

Horizontal volumes in TradingView

If you use the TradingView browser platform, then to work with horizontal volume indicators you need to get the PRO version.

Hello, dear readers of my blog! Today I decided to continue the topic of trading in financial markets and dwell in more detail on volumes. Many traders neglect this information; at most, they use the standard volume indicator from the MetaTrader4 set. By doing this they are simply depriving themselves the most powerful analytical tool, because the price behavior depends on the traded volume. I recommend that you do not refuse to use this information, but first familiarize yourself with the basics VSA and only then decide for yourself whether it is worth including it in your vehicle.

Volume classification

Depending on how they are displayed on the graph, there are:

In trading, you can combine both types of volumes or limit yourself to only one of them. I note that in MetaTrader4 things are not very good with this. Indicator of horizontal volumes in standard set missing, there are only a couple of tools for displaying vertical volumes.

Eat another classification depending on where the data comes from:

Even though volume indicators for MT4 provide only tick data, they can be used in your work. If we compare the histograms for real data with CME and tick data in MT4, it turns out that the outlines of both histograms are very similar. We are not interested in the specific volume value on each candle; this information is useless. Important at work dynamics of volume changes, bursts of activity in the market, that is, the outline of a histogram generally.

Where to get information from?

In MetaTrader4, in the standard set of indicators, the situation with volumes is deplorable; only 4 algorithms are available, and even those allow you to work only with tick data. In addition to MT4, you can work with this information through other terminals.

For example, in ATAS There is an opportunity to work with a footprint. In general, it is well implemented in the terminal cluster graph analysis. The only downside is that the demo is available for a limited time. After it expires, you will have to register your training account again.

For QUIK There are good indicators of horizontal/vertical volumes. On sb-professional.com a lot of information, however, their terminal is now paid. From the terminals I will also note NinjaTrader And ToS.

You can also view data on futures volumes Here . True, working with information is not particularly convenient, and time delay present.

Previously, an excellent set of indicators from Delta Cluster, but since 2013 they have become paid. Moreover, the indicators themselves can be downloaded, but they will only work if you top up your account on the website clusterdelta.com , otherwise access to information will be denied.

I liked the developments of the Delta Cluster because the trader received everything he needed to work using VSA. There are regular and horizontal volumes, and delta volumes. In principle, if a trader constantly uses VSA in his work, then he can pay for access, but for beginners it is better to experiment in the same MT4. You should not count on the Delta Cluster indicators being hacked. The point is that it pays access to information from the site. A hacked indicator simply will not have access to it.

If you have just begun to get acquainted with volumes, then it is quite possible to limit yourself to free tools for MT4 or other trading terminals.

Brief overview of indicators

In this section I will very briefly go over main indicators that anyone can download for free and try it in MT4. In principle, they are all the same type, as well as the methods of working with them.

The Volumes indicator is a standard tool from MetaTrader4

It doesn't have any settings, you can only change the thickness of the histogram lines and their color. On the chart, the vertical volume indicator is plotted in the “basement”.

The color of the histogram column indicates in which direction there were more ticks (that is, price changes). If column red, then when the candle was formed the price went down more often than it went up.

There may be situations when a white candle corresponds to a red column in the indicator window.

Belongs to the category of custom indicators. The histogram coincides 100% with the histogram of standard Volumes. The main advantage of Better Volumes is that columns are painted in different colors depending on the market situation, that’s why it is called “the best indicator for vertical volumes in MT4”. The screenshot below shows that the histograms match up to a point.

The color breakdown of the histogram columns looks like this:

red– appears on rising candle (the body may be black, but with a large shadow below). Required condition - large traded volume. Such signals need to be taken into account if they appear at a peak, often this indicates either an upcoming trend change or the beginning of a corrective movement;
brown– appears at the end of a downward movement on a candle with a large traded volume and a large range. If the brown histogram column appears at the end of a growing movement, we ignore it;
green– one more powerful reversal signal, corresponds to candles with a relatively small range and large volume. This is a key moment in the development of a trend in Forex, at this time large players leave the market, transferring their positions to small traders;
yellow column– an auxiliary signal, corresponding to a very small traded volume. Also appears at the end of trends/corrections. Physical meaning – there are no people willing to buy/sell on the market;
blue bars– we don’t pay attention to them, they simply indicate the number of price changes in ticks.

In the indicator settings there is such an item as MAPeriod– period of the moving average.

A moving average is plotted directly from the histogram in the indicator window; the moving average line can be considered a dynamic level to determine the significance of the volume. If the histogram column is above her, the indicator values are considered to be above average.

VWAP indicator

I will mention it briefly, since the volume in it is used only indirectly, to calculate the position of the lines on the chart. This is not an indicator of futures volumes (or tick volumes), but regular moving average, simply the volume is used in the calculation formula. On each candle, the price is multiplied with volume, and the product of these values is divided by the total volume.

On the chart we get an envelope of lines; they can be used, for example, as a replacement for Bollinger Bands and work to rebound from them. This indicator is available online for both the MetaTrader4 and MT5 terminals.

Indicators for working with horizontal volumes

There are many algorithms of this type on the Internet. Some build a market profile for given periods, others show the overall trading for a selected period of time. I don’t see the point in describing in detail the features of each, so I will give several such algorithms in the form of a list. In principle, they show the same thing, which means they are interchangeable:

HighVolumeBar– horizontal volumes are built daily. It can be used to determine the most significant levels for the graph, at which the maximum value is observed on the histogram;
– suitable for displaying the total trading volume across the entire chart. Just add it to the chart, and a histogram of the entire chart will appear on the left side of the screen. The tool is convenient for determining levels; they can be used, for example, when trend trading. I pay special attention to working with the trend; it is convenient to enter the market at the end of the correction, and this moment can be indicated by the levels on the level sensor. I even devoted a separate material to this method of work - it is entirely devoted to the issue of trading in the direction of market movement;
– the same thing, but the histogram is already located in the right corner. Shows the same as the previous algorithm;
– the market profile is built by day. The main feature is additional features indicator. It highlights on the graph ROS(point of control) – key levels, on which the maximum traded volume was observed. The chart also highlights zones in which maximum volumes were observed, and even plots trend lines. However, the accuracy of their construction leaves much to be desired.

How to apply this information in trading

For convenience, I will divide the use of horizontal and vertical volumes into 2 separate sections, but this does not mean that they should be used separately in trading. You can combine both types of indicators.

Working with the standard Volumes indicator

You can trade using Better Volume signals, in this case, focus on column color histograms, as well as candle configuration on the chart. But the standard Volumes indicator, which displays tick data rather than real market volume, can work quite well.

In any material devoted to VSA, you will come across phrases such as “ significant or big volume". At the same time, in the window with a histogram there are no criteria that would help rank the data and determine which column of the histogram can be considered large and which is within the normal range.

I recommend putting the level/levels on the indicator on one's own. To do this, reduce the scale and draw a horizontal line on the histogram by eye so that most of the columns are under her. This way we will cut off truly significant price fluctuations from ordinary price noise.

When working pay attention to:

I recommend combine volumetric indicators with other market analysis techniques and indicators.

For example, if we add MACD to the situation discussed in the screenshot above, we will see that shortly before the breakdown there was MACD divergence, which increases the likelihood of a true breakdown. I talked about this in more detail earlier.

Using Horizontal Volumes

They are mainly used to determine ROS(point of control) – a straight line is drawn through the maximum value of the histogram and we get level. As a rule, such levels are always worked out. Not exactly to the point, the price may not reach it a little, cast beyond it, but it still stops there.

Alternatively, when working intraday, you can build several ROS and trade on lights out either on breakdown the resulting horizontal channels. The levels are worked out even if a gap appears on the market, the price will still take into account the position of the ROS - the key levels for large players. Read more about this in a separate article.

Now small an example of using volumes in intraday work:

As when trading on a rebound from standard support/resistance levels, I recommend taking into account reversal candlestick patterns, This important element in understanding what is happening in the market. is considering this issue thoroughly, I recommend that you familiarize yourself with it.

Don’t forget that it’s easy to work with such a tool as horizontal/vertical volume using history; you can justify any entry into the market without any problems. The real challenges start when you need them predict chart behavior in the near future, determine whether the support/resistance breakdown is true. Only one can help with this constant practice.

Conclusions

Volumes are important in trading; they can be used both as the basis of a trading strategy and as one of the additional filters (for example, assessing the truth of a level breakout). I'm not advocating that you abandon your own trading methods and immediately start trading only based on VSA, but It’s worth taking a closer look at this method of market analysis.

I will end my review here, I hope it was useful for you. Subscribe to my blog updates, this is not the last topic that I would like to discuss with you. See you in touch!

If you find an error in the text, please select a piece of text and click Ctrl+Enter. Thanks for helping my blog get better!

In stock exchanges, the term "volume" represents total number purchased, implemented contracts and shares within one day. Thus, the volume is the daily turnover on the exchange.

Better Volume indicator

The most popular volume indicator among professional traders is called Better Volume. The Better Volume volume indicator is able to evaluate the candle and volume automatically. It compares them with past values, which allows it to provide signals about the size of the spread, as well as the size of the volume. The following color signals appear in the Better Volume indicator window:

A red tint is a signal of a wide spread and high volume on the up bar. Such a signal usually appears at the end or emergence of an uptrend, as well as at the time of correction of downtrends.
A white tint signals the presence of a wide spread and high volume on the down bar. A similar signal occurs at the end or beginning of a bearish trend, as well as at the time of correction of upward trends.
A yellow tint is a signal of low volume. Similar signals appear during a correction period, as well as at the end of trends.
A green tint indicates the presence of a bar with high volume and a small spread. Similar signals appear at the end of trends, as well as in the middle of trends at the time of taking profit.
A purple tint signals high volume on candles with different ranges. Such signals appear quite rarely and only at the time of correction.
A blue tint indicates that the indicator is not producing any signals.

Analysis of volumes using this indicator allows you to find out what exactly market makers are doing in the current period of time: purchasing or selling currency. Practice shows that in order to successfully trade on the Forex market, you need to follow the market makers.

To carry out the analysis correctly, you should compare the tick volume with the dimensions of the current candle. A large tick volume is a signal of the activity of large traders who are buying or selling currency. A similar situation in the market may cause a reversal in the price level. Taking a look at the chart below, you will notice that the price level reversal occurred at a time when there was high volume in the market.

You can download the volume indicator for MT4 using the link below.
Download the Better Volume indicator
The installation process for Better Volume is quite simple and practically no different from installing other indicators.

Horizontal volume indicators for MT4 and 5, when trading on the foreign exchange market, provide tangible advantages, as they allow traders to monitor the mood of Forex participants. If the price movement is not confirmed in volumes, then we can assume that the price will begin to make a reversal. If the trend, on the contrary, is confirmed by high infusions, then the indicator indicates to us further price movement.

What are horizontal volumes and why do we need them?

Let's look at a simple example. Imagine a recently built multi-storey residential building (10 floors), into which people are slowly moving in. On each floor of this building there is a certain number of identical apartments, but time passes and we see that apartments on the middle floors (from the 4th to the 6th) are in greater demand, and not on the top or bottom.

Here, we can draw an analogy with - just these floors (4-6) are the value zone, that is, the most attractive level for making trade transactions.

How does horizontal volumes form using the indicator in MT4 and 5 versions?

As a rule, a horizontal volume histogram is formed on the left side, where each tick of a trading instrument is a separate histogram. A horizontal volume histogram for a specific price level, for example 148990 (as in the example below), indicates the number of a specific (or other instrument) that was bought or sold.

In our example with futures contracts, this number is 6257.

If in the order book, opposite the price of 148990, you see the number of contracts offered for sale is equal to, say, 200, and they begin to be gradually sorted out (for example, 100 contracts were purchased), then the histogram opposite this price level will increase by the same number (100) .

The use of horizontal volumes shows interest in a certain level, as well as the total volume accumulated during the day.

The greater the volume, the stronger the interest caused by this level, but here it should be remembered that the price will move from one volume to another. It should always be understood where the price is currently located in relation to the previous large volume.

It is precisely the price position relative to previous large volumes that is used as an indicator of the direction of movement.

In other words, if the current price is lower than the previous maximum volume, then it would be better to trade “short”, and when the price, on the contrary, is higher than the previous maximum volume, then it is better to trade “long”.

But to do all this more comfortably and quickly, you can use the horizontal volume indicator for MT4 and 5. Moreover, such an indicator is not the only algorithm, there are a lot of them, and you can download them absolutely free. We propose to consider some of these horizontal volume indicators for MT4 and 5.

Horizontal volume indicator ClusterDelta_VolumeProfile, configure and use

The ClusterDelta_VolumeProfile algorithm serves as an indicator of horizontal volumes, or rather the volume profile. The indicator on the chart looks like a comparative histogram built on the basis of the sum of volumes at each price for a given period. The maximum values of profile volumes usually serve in the future.

To make it more clear to you where the values for volumes come from, pay attention to the picture below, in which the same graph (above) is displayed in the form of clusters. Here the volume profile (left) is presented digitally next to the price on a green background.

On a red background, you will see the maximum values of the digital profile (red background), corresponding to the maximum lines of the histogram (also red). All profile data is displayed on the trading chart.

Regarding the settings, this indicator has quite a lot of them:

You can learn more about each customizable parameter of the indicator after downloading it (you can do this absolutely free) from the attached instructions.

Horizontal volume indicator VP_Position for MT4 and 5

The horizontal volume indicator for MT4 and 5 VP_Position can be placed either directly on the terminal chart or attached to any of its sides (left/right).

This indicator, which can be downloaded for free, just like the previous one, has many different settings:

Regarding its placement on the chart, then with a value of “0” the indicator will be located directly on the chart.
with the value “1” - placement on the left,
with a value of “2” - on the right.
Don’t forget about the “Forex_Shift” parameter, which determines the number of points to shift the chart down or up.

This variable can have a positive or negative value. It is intended to take into account forward points (the difference between futures and spot prices) when placing volume profiles on Forex instruments.

Indicator of horizontal volumes of SRW and TPO Range. Application on MT4 chart

The following horizontal volume indicator for MT4 and 5 can also be downloaded for free. It's called TPO (aka Time Price Opportunity). Today, there are two versions of this algorithm on the network, these are TPO itself and TPO Range. The first version builds a market profile at equal time intervals, and TPO Range makes it possible to build a volume distribution for any period that the user needs.

As we have already said, the TPO version builds a profile over a certain time interval. In the figure below, you can see an example where each of the clusters was built in 1 hour.

Transparent rectangles represent the distribution by levels. Here, the more often the price fluctuates at a level, the more weight it will have when constructing a chart.

Rectangles filled with blue indicate the “mode”, the so-called maximum of the distribution. To be frank, it is precisely for the sake of this indicator that all calculations are carried out, since horizontal accumulations of tick volumes are evidence of a strong level, which, as a rule, acts as resistance or support.

The basic version of the TPO horizontal volume indicator can be used very effectively, that is, in cases where only the latest price impulses will be taken into account. But for medium-term forecasting it is better to use the TPO Range horizontal volume indicator.

Let's set the TPO Range to the previous markup:

Now you can track the distribution of horizontal volumes on different scales, changing the working range of the indicator yourself, by moving the vertical dotted lines on the chart, as in the example below.

As you can see, the price quite clearly worked out the support level (in the chart above – “S”), after which it, as if according to a drawn template, bounced off the “R” (resistance) level.

To summarize, we can say that using horizontal volume indicators for MT4 and 5, which you can download for free, allows you to determine the potential of transactions, detect the levels of stop orders, market entry positions when you need to move without a loss, or leave a position, etc. .

Horizontal volumes and their application in Forex

Modern futures are part of the capital market, an effective tool for compensating for price fluctuations and “instant” averaging of money demand without a sharp change in supply. Technical analysis of such assets has features that can be used to avoid mistakes and increase the reliability of your Forex transactions.

The main difference between assets lies in the structure of the Forex market and the futures contract market, that is, in the principles of market price formation.

The Forex market is an over-the-counter interbank market, used by banks and others financial structures for speculation and regulation of financial flows. Real volumes are not visible precisely because there is no single trading platform. The volume of speculative transactions is more than 70%. Despite active attempts at regulation, the degree of control over such a market is low. Technical analysis is complicated by the fact that each broker has its own price flow.

The futures market is a centralized (transparent) exchange market that connects seller and buyer on the exchange through the process of clearing transactions. There is no spread, the floating bid/ask is minimal and is regulated by the volume of client orders. That is, if a real client buys a real futures contract, but the price of the asset falls, then this client incurs losses, and the one who sold this contract to him makes a profit. The client's loss in no case becomes the profit of the exchange or broker. The exchange lives off the turnover commission, which is assigned to the client individually: if there are few transactions, the commission is equal to the spread (similar to Forex), with a large number of transactions - significantly lower.

Please note: most Forex brokers calmly claim that they guarantee futures trading, but the list of trading instruments usually only includes CFD assets. It is strongly recommended to study and feel the difference before opening real transactions. You can read in detail here about Forex futures .

A little about the subject

All futures that may be interesting for trading on Forex are settlement ones, that is, actual delivery is not expected for them. Today, in the form of fixed-term contracts, it is offered wide range trading assets: exchange rates, commodities, stock and settlement indices, securities, metals, energy resources. Technical analysis of futures should take more into account fundamental factors. Exchanges constantly trade contracts with different terms expiration, so there is a special exchange calendar for several years with a clear indication of the delivery date for all assets.

Now it is absolutely not necessary that the futures be based on a real asset (stock, bond or commodity) - it can be any information, such as the probability of an increase interest rate or the result of national elections. The demand and conditions for such assets are determined by the market.

Index futures can be considered a separate group of assets: general, industrial, regional. An additional factor, influencing the dynamics of composite or industrial indices is the reporting of the enterprises included in its calculation - pay attention to the corresponding calendar. New index assets are constantly appearing, for example, recently CME Group launched futures on a new index to assess the real value of the dollar (similar to DXY), it is calculated based on a basket of ten currencies (EUR, JPY, CAD, MXN, GBP, AUD, CHF, KRW, CNH, BRL).

Features of technical analysis of futures

Major futures can be traded through a standard forex terminal, using almost the same principles of fundamental and technical analysis, using standard order types. Moreover, initially everything technical tools was developed specifically for trading commodity contracts.

Forex quotes come from a variety of sources, and the prices of CFD assets that are offered to you in a regular forex terminal may vary significantly from one platform to another at any given time. This is impossible with real futures; trading is carried out only on exchanges, and only a specific buyer-seller trading pair generates quotes. All exchange platforms openly publish their prices for the previous trading day with an accuracy of 1 tick, so all clients have the same data when working with futures in trading terminals.

Futures contracts are fixed-term assets, that is, they have a final closing (expiration) date; before this date, the contract must be executed, that is, the client can voluntarily get rid of accepted obligations. To hold a deal longer than the expiration date, you need to regularly switch to a later contract. If you do not close a futures transaction on time, the broker will forcefully close it and the price will not be the best. It goes without saying that most speculators own an asset for a fairly short time.

Futures are, first of all, volatility, because on the real exchange the share of short-term speculators is also very impressive. But with a reasonable approach, such activity may well bring a stable income on Forex transactions intraday. A nervous reaction to fundamental news or force majeure can be compensated for by analyzing related markets.

The heterogeneity of futures volatility has a constant impact. Even if the average “life” of a contract is from 3 to 6 months, then the main trading volume on it occurs in the last 3 weeks (for short-term contracts) or in the last 2 months (for long-term contracts), that is, when this futures becomes the closest expiration date.

This complicates long-term analysis. Immediately after opening a contract, it lacks liquidity - sharp price jumps occur, and closer to the closing date, stable, but still too strong volatility appears. As a result, when a Forex asset approaches strong level support/resistance, the futures asset may not respond to this due to its “youth”, or give false signals because large volumes of transactions are recorded before the current contract is closed. Therefore, to analyze CFDs in the Forex trading terminal, you need to use data from a futures contract that is in the “middle” of its term, when it is most consistent with technical analysis and is not subject to calendar speculation.

Since a futures is a transaction in which there are two parties (seller/buyer), the concept of the number of open positions shows the degree of interest of trading participants in a particular price movement, and the more open interest in a particular futures, the greater the price movement should be expected . We take data on open interest from CME reports or other exchange resources.

The closer to the expiration date of the futures, the more transactions are recorded on it. The market for the asset becomes thin, with gaps; large players with large volumes become active, speculating and shifting the price in the direction they need. At such moments, the futures price can no longer be used as a “guide” or source of trading signals for CFD assets or currency pairs.

In futures trading there is no locking and no swap, but there is rollover and there is clearing. There is always a difference between the spot prices and the futures counterpart - it is maximum when a new contract is opened, and decreases as it approaches the contract closing date. In addition, price calculations are complicated by differences in the same asset, but with different maturities.

Getting ready to trade futures

Before you start trading any futures, in addition to minimal technical analysis, you need to do some preparatory work. First, we clarify the ticker of the asset (either on CME www.cmegroup.com, or on ICE www.theice.com), for example, gold falls into the “Metals” section, in the “Precious” column with the ticker “GC Gold”. Next, we study the contract specification - “Contract Specifications” with the main parameters of the asset. Dozens of contracts can be traded in parallel (visible in the “Listed Contracts” section), we need the most liquid one. We look for data in the appropriate section, for example, on the BarChart website, in the “Volume” column - we need the largest volume. If the data of neighboring contracts are approximately equal, then we choose a longer term.

Be sure to check for yourself the last day of trading and the expiration date for the selected contract, so as not to be left with an open transaction in the last hours of its existence. Otherwise, at best, you will have to close on a thin market with non-standard spreads, and at worst, the broker himself will fix your transaction at a very unfavorable price.

It is recommended to transfer a transaction to the next contract (close the current one and open a new one on a futures contract that is more distant in terms of terms) at least several business days in advance for monthly futures, and 1.5-2 weeks in advance for quarterly ones.

Please note: in futures, instead of leverage, the concept of “collateral margin” is used, which may differ for different contracts, as well as the cost of 1 tick.

Strategies for trading futures

Almost all trading strategies that have worked well on futures assets can be successfully applied on Forex, but subject to certain rules.

Despite the high average volatility - scalpers do not survive on futures, the vast majority of real exchange traders are trend medium-term traders, and large volumes are in long positions for almost the entire futures period. As a result, before closing contracts, swing movements appear to bring the market price as close as possible to the contract level. After opening a new futures, the price can just as quickly return to its previous level.

As a rule, large stock traders use a minimum of technical analysis, preferring volumetric analysis and VSA technologies to traditional calculation indicators. Almost all the advertised indicator strategies of trading luminaries were created specifically for Forex. Using oscillators like RSI or Stochastic in futures trading usually only adds false signals, but trend indicators, in particular moving average combinations, as well as momentum-based indicators, are a must.

Futures movements on news are usually very strong (especially on indices), but appear counterintuitive. Statistics show that in 90% of cases, futures traders use fundamental information that has not been processed by the market or has generally lost its relevance. The influence of fundamental factors, especially on commodity futures, is always multifactorial, and for a normal, reasonable reaction the market requires some time for analysis.

The insider factor most affects the main futures (oil, gold, S&P500, dollar index): having important information before the main market, large players before the news artificially move the price against the logical movement in order to force the bulk of traders to jump into the market, and in fact, after the news is released, they quickly unload the accumulated position. That is why, contrary to technical analysis, even on negative data, underlying futures always give short-term impulses in the opposite direction and also quickly roll back, which is very dangerous for small deposits with an insufficient StopLoss level.

It is assumed that in a stable market, exchange players will always follow the trend identified on the intraday chart. Let us recall one simple but stable strategy for trading futures

Trading using pivot points

This technique most closely matches the logic of real exchange players, who consider the data of the previous day as the basis for determining the dominant trend. Trading assets: stock indices; oil; gold; major currency pairs.

Technical analysis defines pivot points as price support/resistance levels calculated from the Low, High and Close prices of the previous closed period (H1/D1/W1/MN1). If necessary, calculations are performed for all timeframes sequentially, but, naturally, the smaller the range of data for calculation, the lower the accuracy of the constructed levels. Daily reference points of the day allow you to build a work scheme for each subsequent currency session.

The classic scheme for calculating daily pivot points begins with determining the central pivot point of the day: РР0 = (Low+High+Close)/3.

From it we calculate the first resistance: R1 = (PP0*2) – Low; and the first support: S1 = (PP0*2) – High.

The second pair support&resistance is defined as: R2 = РР0 + (R1– S1); S2 = РР0 – (R1 – S1).

The trading technology is simple: we open a deal every time the nearest support point is broken (by a closed candle).

From a fundamental point of view, it is believed that the values described above show levels where the interests of large players have been in balance for a long time. Experienced stock traders use pivot points in combination with other tools to determine the entry point as accurately as possible using additional indicators or a graphical pattern.

Let’s not forget: the whole world has been trading using reference points for several decades now, and there is no secret about it. Subject to strict management, a pivot points trading strategy will be profitable only if three conditions are met:

you need to correctly determine the shock day;
During the trading session, open strictly according to the trend.
hold a profitable position until the next support level is reached.

The idea of reference points is quite effectively used by the shock day theory, which can be found in Rezvyakov’s strategy. The impact trend day is determined at the beginning of the session: if the price begins to move in the zone of the pivot point, then with a 90% probability the day will be a trend one. If the price at the beginning of the trading session does not fall within the range of the reference point, for example, above R2 or below S2, then we are waiting for a flat and it is worth reducing the volume of the open transaction or not entering the market at all.

Strong price levels formed by limit orders, repeatedly tested by the market for breakdown/rollback, have been used by major players for many years to determine the trend. According to the shock day system, it is not recommended to open new transactions on Friday (due to the high risk of a gap on Monday) and at the end of the futures period.

As a rule, the strategy uses a stable oscillator, for example, the classic MACD, as an addition to the reference points - its signals reduce the number of entry points by about 3 times, but significantly increase reliability, especially with further support of the transaction.

Using futures as an indicator

To evaluate futures, tick volumes do not matter at all, so any Forex technical analysis, both on real futures and on a CFD asset, will only evaluate a mathematical dependence. Futures analogs can be used as “guides” with the help of proprietary indicators that are used in exchange trading terminals. Then you can get trading signals that take into account the dynamics real volumes. A successful example can be considered the trading system of Sergei Rublev and his futures indicator System Ryblev ArrowSTUDY, created for the Thinkorswim trading platform.

Using its signals as a guide, you can trade short-term on a regular currency pair or CFD versions of futures in regular MetaTrader. So, on the futures stock chart we have:

a pink arrow or “starting candle”, as a result of the conditions for the entry point of the strategy;
horizontal level – for a pending order 2-3 points higher or lower;
white arrow – breakdown of the pending order level.

As a result, we take signals from TOS, and open trades on MT4. The trading system works strictly according to the trend, it has shown itself to be excellent on major currencies and commodity futures, the working timeframe is from M15. The stop-to-profit ratio is at least 1:4.

And as a conclusion...

For most small traders, full-fledged contracts are not available due to financial terms, but for almost every popular index and commodity futures there is a mini-contract option, for example, E-mini S&P500, E-mini DowJones, E-Mini NASDAQ or E-mini Euro, with more loyal conditions and, of course, only for speculation. Due to traders with small deposits, liquidity for such contracts is always higher than for the main asset.

According to professional traders, futures are eternal because it is a regular trading agreement for exchange participants, it has more logic, and technical analysis for it is much more reliable. In addition, this is a natural stage in the development of a small speculator into a serious player.